New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Trends in births and deaths

Births

Declining fertility rates and the changing composition and number of women of childbearing ages have led to a declining number of births in the last decades. In the Middle scenario we hold the fertility rate constant, but the changing composition and number of women of childbearing ages causes a continuing decline. In the High scenario, the fertility rate and the number of women goes up, but not enough to completely reverse the downward trend.

Deaths

Since 2010 the number of deaths have slowly been increasing. On top of that, the Covid-19 pandemic claimed many additional lives. The projections show that the upward trend will continue as the New York population is aging. The Low scenario has slightly higher mortality rates, but because the population is also smaller than the Middle scenario, the total number of deaths is comparable. A similar explanation is behind the trends in the High scenario, lower mortality rates, but more people.

Natural increase

Natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Around 2000, New York State the number of births exceeded the number of deaths, and the state added around 100,000 persons because of this difference. Just before the pandemic hit, New York added 75,000 people because of this difference. This downward trend is projected to continue, and depending on the scenario, become negative somewhere between 2030 and 2040. After that, the projections show more deaths than births.