New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Total population by age and sex

Total population

Over the last 25 year the population of New York State has gone up and down. The historic trends are based on the inter-censal estimates from U.S. Census Bureau (2000-2010) and Cornell PAD (2010-2020). These estimates indicate that the New York State population was declining at the end of the 2010-2020 decade and dropped much more sharply in the early part of the current decade. The Covid-19 pandemic played an important role in this sharp drop.

With demographic change rates similar to the end of the last decade (Middle scenario), the population is projected to decline to around 18.3 million in 2050. The Low scenario assumes demographic change that indicates that the pandemic was not the only source of the sharp decline and that future change rates are more in favor of population decline compared to the middle scenario. The resulting 2050 population in this scenario is around 17 million. The High scenario assumes that demographic change is more in favor of population growth compared with the Middle scenario and shows an increasing population to 19.8 million in 2038 with a slow decline to 19.5 million in 2050. None of the scenarios project a return to the 2020 Census count of 20.2 million.

Population pyramids

A population pyramid is a graphical representation of the population by age and sex. At the bottom is the number of infants, at the top the number of centenarians. On the left is the male population and on the right the female population. The results presented in this chart are from the Middle scenario.

The chart shows the age groups that are more, or less represented at a certain moment in time. In 2022, our start point there are two age groups more represented then others. Around age 60 is the baby-boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) and around age 30 is the millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996). When we go forward in time, we see those generations go up as they age, and get smaller because of mortality and effects of migration. In 2050, the youngest baby boomers are 86 years old.

Median age

The median age is the age for which 50% of the population is younger and 50% of the population is older. In 2022 the median age was 40 years. The median age in New York has been increasing for a long time. In the 2000 Census, the median age was 35.9, in 2010 it was 38.0 and in 2020 it had increased to 39.0. There is currently no consistent annual time series that contains this information, so the historic trends could not be displayed.

All three projection scenarios show a further increase in the coming 10 years and a slowing down of this increase thereafter. Depending on the scenario, the projections show a median age in 2050 between 43 and 44 years old.

Age groups

Projecting the 0-17 year olds is directly linked to projected future school enrollments. According to the past Censuses this number declined from 4.7 million in 2000 to 4.3 million in 2010 and 4.1 million in 2020. Our projections start with a 0-17 yr old population just over 4 million and in all scenarios the decline will continue and end between 3.0 million in the Low scenario and 3.6 million in the High scenario.

The age group 25-54 is often referred to as the prime working age. All three scenarios have a period built in where the Covid period migration patterns are being adjusted to a new “normal”. In the Middle scenario the working age population is projected to decrease from 7.5 million in 2025 to 7 million in 2050. The Low scenario projects a decline to 6.5 million and the projected prime working age population in the High scenario increases from 7.5 million in 2025 to 7.7 million in 2040 to then decline back to around 7.5 million.

Most people in the 65plus age group are retired and start utilizing a different set of services. The number of 65 and over is projected to increase in the coming years as many in the baby boom generation are celebrating their 65’th birthday. At some point in the future, the number of people that reach the age of 65 will be smaller than the number of people passing or moving away. In 2050 the number of people age 65 and over is between 3.9 and 4.4 million depending on the scenario.