New York State projections 2022 - 2050
Scenarios
Assumptions about the future is an integral part of population projection models. The other sections in the methodology section describe how we derived demographic changes based on recent observations. Our model allows for year to year change in all assumed rates, but also contains a number of high level levers that allow us to easier build what-if scenarios without adjusting the age specific rates.
Each of the components has one or two of those levers:
- Births
- TFR
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is an important indicator of fertility and can be see as an average of the number of births per woman over her child bearing ages. It is the sum of all Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR). This lever multiplies each of the ASFRs with a constant factor such that they add up to the TFR in the scenario description.
- Deaths
- MortMultiplier
This lever multiplies each of the age specific mortality rates with a constant factor.
- Domestic migration
- DomTurnOverMult
Turn over is defined as the total number of people moving in and out of the state. This lever multiplies each of the age specific domestic migration with a constant factor to account for assumptions on a change in the willingness to move.
- DomEffAdj
Migration efficiency is defined as the net migration (IN minus OUT) divided by the turn over (IN plus OUT) and is an indicator of an average direction of the migration flows. This lever multiplies defines two multipliers, one for the inflows and one for the outflows, but in a way that doesn't impact the total number of people moving.
- International migration
- IntMigInTotal
This is the total number of people moving into the state from abroad. In combination with the age specific shares defined separately this lever defines the counts of the immigrants by age.
- EmigrTotal
his is the total number of people moving out of the state to a different country. In combination with the age specific shares defined separately this lever defines the counts of the emigrants by age.
Results presented in this set of projections are based on three scenarios:
Middle is a scenario where we assume that demographic change from 2025 forward is similar to the demographic change last decade.
High is a scenario where we assumed that after 2025 demographic change in each of the components slowly changes to be slightly more in favor of population growth.
Low is a scenario where we assumed that demographic change in the state doesn't recover to pre-pandemic levels and the components are slightly more in favor of population decline compared to the middle scenario.
| Scenario setting for Middle |
Scenario setting for High |
Scenario setting for Low |
| Variable |
yr2023 |
yr2025 |
yr2050 |
| TFR |
1.55 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
| MortMultiplier |
1.05 |
1 |
1 |
| DomTurnOverMult |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| DomEffAdj |
-0.1 |
0 |
0 |
| IntMigInTotal |
100,000 |
90,000 |
90,000 |
| EmigrTotal |
22,500 |
22,500 |
22,500 |
|
| Variable |
yr2023 |
yr2025 |
yr2050 |
| TFR |
1.55 |
1.6 |
1.65 |
| MortMultiplier |
1.05 |
1 |
0.95 |
| DomTurnOverMult |
1 |
1 |
0.9 |
| DomEffAdj |
-0.1 |
0 |
0.05 |
| IntMigInTotal |
100,000 |
100,000 |
100,000 |
| EmigrTotal |
25,000 |
25,000 |
25,000 |
|
| Variable |
yr2023 |
yr2025 |
yr2050 |
| TFR |
1.55 |
1.55 |
1.55 |
| MortMultiplier |
1.05 |
1.05 |
1.05 |
| DomTurnOverMult |
1 |
1 |
1.1 |
| DomEffAdj |
-0.1 |
-0.05 |
-0.05 |
| IntMigInTotal |
100,000 |
90,000 |
80,000 |
| EmigrTotal |
22,500 |
22,500 |
22,500 |
|
|
