New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Methodology overview

These projections are based on a cohort-component method. This method is based on the demographic balancing equation:

Pop_t+1 = Pop_t + Births - Deaths + (In - Out)_Domestic + (In - Out)_{International}

The projection model starts with the population at time t, ages everyone by 1 year, and based on the composition of this population and a set of assumptions, projects each of the so-called components of change.