New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Mortality assumptions

The number of projected deaths is a product of age and sex specific mortility rates and the number of persons at risk.

Deaths of people age a and sex s = AgeSpecificMortilityRate_a,s * CountOfPeople_a,s

To calculate the age and sex specific mortility rates, we procured deaths of New York State residents by sex and single years of age from the NVSS Underlying Cause of Death public-use tool (CDC Wonder) for ages 0 to 99 and 100+ to serve as the numerator for our initial mortality rates. The denominator was single year of age by sex for the state, taken from the Census Bureau Annual Population Estimates. We limited the data years to 2015-2019 to preserve the most recent death trends possible, without including mortality patterns due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Using these rates (Mx) we produced life tables to calculate life expectancy at age 85. Since the population estimates stop at age 84, we derived q(x) for ages 85-100 using the remainder of the life table. The probability of death d(x) at each age was then used as our projection input.

In the Middle scenario we assume that age and sex specific mortility rates return to the average values from the past. In the High sceario we assume that mortility rates in the future are 5% lower then the average rates, and in the Low scenario we assume mortality rates 5% higher then the average rates.