New York State projections 2022 - 2050

International migration assumptions

The approach for our international immigration assumption was similar to domestic migration. We used the 1-year American Community Survey (ACS) data to estimate the number of people at each year of age moving into NYS from abroad from 2007-2022, excluding 2020 and 2021. We again used LOWESS to smooth the scatterplot, except for the college ages (18-24). It is worth noting that this assumption is based off counts rather than rates since the denominator of “at risk” for moving in from abroad is very difficult to ascertain.

For international emigration (moving abroad from the U.S.), we estimated that 25% of the immigration number would be moving out in a given year, but that this percentage and also the duration of stay varies by age of arrival in the USA.