New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Domestic migration assumptions

Domestic migration is the movement between New York State and other states in the USA. We project the flows into New York separate from the flow of people leaving New York State.

Inflow of people of age a = AgeSpecificInMigrationRate_a * CountOfPeopleOutsideNY_a
Outflow of people of age a = AgeSpecificOutMigrationRate_a * CountOfPeopleInsideNY_a

We used 1-year ACS data to estimate migration into and out of New York State by year from 2007 to 2022. Due to COVID-19 induced complications and the consequentially experimental nature of the 2020 ACS, we removed both the 2021 and 2020 data points from our estimates (since migration is based upon residence one year ago. Rates of migration into and out of New York State over the past 15 years by single years of age were calculated.

The denominator for in-migration rates was the population in the previous year residing in all states other than New York (“at risk” of moving in), and the numerator was the number of people in New York State who reported their residence one year ago in a different state. For the projected number of people in all other states we used the 2023 National Population Projections produced by the U.S. Census Bureau.

For out-migration rates, the denominator was the population residing in New York State the previous year (“at risk” of moving out), and the numerator was the number of people who lived in New York in the previous year and were residing in a different state in the current year.

We plotted the averages of in and out-migration rates by single year of age over 15 years and used LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing) to smooth the distribution. Because of the large college age population in NYS, we excluded the 18-24 age group from smoothing to maintain the migration patterns within that population.