New York State projections 2022 - 2050

Trends in Domestic migration

Net domestic migration is the difference between the number of people moving into the state from elsewhere in the country, and the number of people moving out of the state to elsewhere in the country.

According to the population estimates the number of people leaving has been greater than the number of people arriving for at least since 2000. This led to negative net migrations between negative -100,000 around 2010 and -300,000 recently during and after the Covid pandemic.

This set of projections more or less continues the trends in the second half of the last decade. All scenarios show a slight upward trend. The model assumes trending towards constant rates of in- and out migration. Since the number of people ‘at risk’ of moving out (the New York population) is declining or constant in the scenarios, the total number of people moving out is projected to decline. At the same time the remainder of the United States is projected to grow, resulting in an increase of the number of people moving in. The net result is a slight increase.