Comparing NY and FL
The Decennial Census is a count of the United States population that started in 1790 and occurs every ten years. In 1790 and 1800 the Commonwealths of Virginia and Pennsylvania were the largest states. New York State was the most populous state from 1810 through 1960. Between 1960 and 1970, New York State became the second most populous state when California became the state with the largest population. In 1994 New York moved to third when Texas population surpassed it. The 2014 Census Bureau estimates released on December 23, 2014 indicate that Florida is now the third most populous state and New York fourth.
The focus of this assessment is to compare New York and Florida populations, the rates of growth, components of change (i.e., births, deaths, and migration), compositions of the populations, and selected socio-economic indicators.
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Compiled and authored by Jan Vink, November 2014
New York was one of the thirteen colonies that declared their independence in 1776. In 1788 it was the 11'th state to ratify the U.S. Constitution. Florida was ceded to the United States by Spain in 1819, became an organized incorporated territory in 1822 and was admitted as the State of Florida in 1845.
An urbanized area is defined as: "An urbanized area consists of densely developed territory that contains 50,000 or more people. The Census Bureau delineates UAs to provide a better separation of urban and rural territory, population, and housing in the vicinity of large places."
Decennial Census Population
The constitution states that a Census is held every ten years. Its main purpose is allocating the representation in the house of representatives, but there are many more things we can learn from this decennial snapshot.
Although Florida didn't become a state until 1845, censuses were held in the "Territory of Florida" which was territory of the United States from 1822 to 1845 when it was admitted to the Union as the State of Florida.
New York has seen a steady growth until 1970 after which it saw a decade of decline in population and slow growth ever since. In the 1970's New York City lost 10% of its population.
The Florida rates of growth exceeded 25% for almost all decades in the 20'st century and those rates of growth were much larger than those of New York which saw growth rates less then 10% most of the decades. In the 1950's Florida's population grew with an enormous 78.7% from 2.8 million in 1950 to almost 5 million in 1960. By 1980 the population was almost doubled again to almost 10 million. The growth in the 2000-2010 decade was 17.6%, the lowest percentage growth since at least 1900, but still much faster than New York's 2.1%.
In 2000 New York had almost 3 million more residents than Florida, but in 2010 that gap between New York (19,378,102) and Florida (18,801,310) was just 576,792 persons.
Annual Population estimates
To bridge the gap between Decennial Censuses, the Census Bureau also produces annual estimates of population. Population estimates start with the population of the last decade and are produced using data from other data sources. At the end of the decade when new Census counts become available the series from the previous decade are adjusted such that they are consistent with both the Census at the beginning of the decade as well as the Census at the end of the decade. These adjusted series are called the intercensal estimates whereas the series that is only anchored at the beginning is called the postcensal estimates. The data presented here are from the intercensal estimates for the 1990's, the intercensal estimates for the 2000's, and the 2014 vintage of the postcensal estimates.
In 2014 the estimated population in Florida surpassed the New York population. The 2014 estimated population in Florida is 19,893,297, which is 147,070 more than the estimated New York population of 19,746,227.
In the Decennial Census 2010 New York had almost 580,000 more residents than Florida, but since 2010 Florida gained on average 260,000 residents yearly compared to about 86,000 in New York. Between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014 Florida added almost 300,000 residents and New York just over 50,000.
In the midst of the last decade the New York population declined and the Florida population saw the biggest annual gains in the last two decades. As we will see later this corresponds with a period of relative high migration out of New York and into Florida.
The difference between births and deaths, two of the components of population change, is considered the natural increase of population. Both New York and Florida have experienced a positive natural increase (number of births is larger than the number of deaths). Overall, the natural increase was significantly higher in New York than in Florida. The number of deaths is slightly decreasing in New York and increasing in Florida. The number of births in 1990 was approximately 100,000 higher in New York than in Florida; by 2012, the number of births in New York was only about 25,000 higher. Florida experienced a temporary bump up in the number of births from 2003 to 2010, which reached a maximum of nearly 240,000 in 2007.
The data in this section was downloaded from the Florida and New York departments of health.
Many Americans fill out taxes every year and one of the questions on the tax form is place of residence. By linking subsequent tax forms one can observe changes in those places of residency. The tax forms are linked using anonymous identifiers to protect the privacy of the filers.
The matched tax returns is not a perfect measure of domestic migration since it does exclude those that do not file taxes and it attaches the same migration status to everyone on the form. But it has a long annual history and it shows trends in domestic migration very well. The unit of measurement is number of exemptions on each tax form, but here it is also used as a proxy of the number of people moving.
The levels of people leaving the state are very similar for NY and FL. Both are loosing around 300,000 people because of people moving to a different state. Both time series show a brief period of increased out migration with a peak in 2005 for NY and in 2008 for FL. The number of people arriving every year from a different state is much lower in NY than of those arriving in FL. The Florida inflow peeked in 2005.
Fewer people arrive in NY than leave, resulting in a negative net domestic migration. The last few years for which we have data this difference has been smaller. In most of the years more people arrived in FL than left the state, resulting in positive net migration. Only in 2008 and 2009 more people left FL than arrived.
Throughout the observation period there have been more people moving from New York to Florida than from Florida to New York. Florida has always been in the top of destinations and origins for the people moving in and out of New York and New York was among the top destinations and origins for those leaving and arriving in Florida as well.
Domestic Migration Age composition
The American Community Survey asks questions about where you lived one year ago. The answers to these questions are tabulated by current place of residence and by place of residence one year ago resulting in tables of number of people moving in and moving out of the area.
The detailed tabulations on age and migration classify respondents in groups of unequal size. The charts presented here assume that counts are distributed equally within each group.
Young adults move between states in greater numbers than those at other ages. The highest peak in New York is at age 18-19 when most interstate migration is related to going to college.
For all age groups in New York there were more people leaving New York than arriving, although that difference was not significant in the 18-19 year age group. The differences are largest for young adults and children and there is another 'peak' in the difference around retirement age. The age composition of people arriving in Florida from a different state has a rather different signature. Many more people age 50-74 are arriving than leaving.
Place of birth and year of entry
The place of birth tells us more about destinations of domestic and international migration. If a large share of the population is born in a different state (like Florida) it has been more of a destination for domestic migration than when most of the people in the state are also born in the state (like New York). Foreign born doesn't measure international migration as migration into the United States might have been followed by domestic migration to a different state. 13.1% of the U.S. population was foreign born according to the 2013 ACS, this proportion was higher in Florida (19.4%) and New York (22.3%).
When we focus on the foreign born population and look at the year of entry, we see that the foreign born in New York are in general longer in the United States than those now residing in Florida. The differences in the last two decades are not statistically significant.
The list of main countries of birth are very different between New York and Florida. Please keep in mind that for these tabulations people born in Puerto Rico and other unincorporated territories are not counted as foreign born, but are native born.
If we compare the number of people by age we notice that New York State had more younger residents in the Census 2010 than Florida whereas the counts of people age 61-94 in Florida were higher. This is also reflected in the median age (the age for which 50% of the population is younger and 50% is older). The median age in the whole United States was 37.2; In New York it was 38.0 and in Florida the median was at 40.7 years of age. In general a higher median age corresponds with fewer births and more deaths. This is also the case in this comparison when we look at the vital statistics section.
Looking at the younger population in NY, 22.3% of the population was under 18, 10.2% age 18-24. In FL 21.3% of the population was under 18 and 9.3% age 18-24. The shares of the older age categories in FL were higher (17.3% was 65 or older, 2.3% was 85 or older) than in NY where 13.5% was 65 or older and 2.0% was age 85 or over.
The 2010 Decennial Census had 5 major race categories and repondents had the option to check one or more of these categories and/or check a category "Other". Beside race the Census also collected data on Hispanic or Latino origin. For this tabulation the total population is divided into those of Hispanic or Latino origin (any race) and the Non Hispanic category is split in those that checked a single race category (6 groups) and those that checked multiple races. This way one gets 8 distinct groups. For other purposes it might be better to use for example all White Alone (Hispanic and Non Hispanic) or for example all Black or in combination (including those that had Black plus another race).
In both states the Non Hispanic White alone was the largest race/Hispanic origin group with around 58%. Those of Hispanic origin was the second group (17.6% in NY and 22.5% in FL) followed by Non Hispanic Black alone and Non Hispanic Asian alone. The racial composition is not very different if we look at these major race categories. The largest percentage point differences are between the Hispanic and Asian populations.
Majority Minority by age
The Non Hispanic White Alone population is the largest race/ethnicity group in the US; it accounted for 63.7% of the nation's population in 2010. This share varies by location and also by age. When the share of the Non Hispanic White Alone population is less than 50% of the total population one speaks of a majority minority situation.
In NY and FL the Non Hispanic White Alone population is around 58% of the total population, but this share varies with age. For the 0-4 year old in New York there are few more people in the minority groups than there are in the majority Non Hispanic White group. In FL there is a minority majority situation from age 0 to age 37. From around age 60-74 the majority share is about 70% in NY and 75% in FL. After age 75 the shares go up to over 80%. The chart shows a downward trend at the oldest age categories but it is likely that some data quality issues blur the trend.
Gross Domestic Product
From the Bureau of Economic Analyses website: "GDP by state is the value added in production by the labor and capital located in a state. GDP for a state is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all industries in the state." The GDP is a measure of the size of the economy. The GDP in New York is around 8% of the national GDP and Florida around 5%.
In the first half of the previous decade the Florida economy was growing faster than the New York economy, probably as a result of the 9/11 attacks and aftermath. The great recession in the second half of the previous decade had a bigger impact in FL than it did in NY. During the last few year there was small growth in both economies.
The Bureau of Economic Analyses estimates the total number of employees, sole proprietors, and active partners in each state. This is different from the number of people employed as people can hold multiple jobs and number of employees is measured by place of work whereas number of people employed is measured by place of residence.
Both states saw a steady increase in the total employment. Around 2006-2007 Florida almost surpassed New York in total employment, but the great recession at the end of the last decade caused a greater decline in employment in Florida (-7.0% from 2007 to 2010) than it did in New York (-1.8% from 2008 to 2010). Since 2010 employment has increased again in both states; In NY with 5.5% from 2010-2013 and in FL with 6.9% in the same period.
From the BLS website: "Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Persons who were not working and were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been temporarily laid off are also included as unemployed. Receiving benefits from the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program has no bearing on whether a person is classified as unemployed."
In most years the unemployment rate in New York has been slightly higher than in Florida. In the years 2008-2012 however the unemployment rate in FL exceeded that of NY.
From the SAIPE web site: "Poverty status is defined by family; either everyone in the family is in poverty or no one in the family is in poverty. The characteristics of the family used to determine the poverty threshold are: number of people, number of related children under 18, and whether or not the primary householder is over age 65. Family income is then compared to the poverty threshold; if that family's income is below that threshold, the family is in poverty. For more information, please see the Census Bureau Main Page on Poverty". The data presented here is the total number of people in poverty divided by the number of people for whom poverty is measured. Certain groups of people like those in prisons, nursing homes and college dormitories are not included in the poverty measurement.
From 1995-2008 the poverty rate in NY was slightly higher than in FL. From 2008-2011 the poverty rates increased as the result of the recession and that increase was larger in FL than in NY and recently the poverty rate in FL is slightly higher.
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