PAD - Cornell Program on Applied Demographics

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics
In cooperation with the New York State Center for Rural Schools

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Select school district:
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Select projection method:

Background

This page presents projection results produced by the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics. The October 2011 enrollment was used as a base and progression ratios and enrollment in Kindergarten over the last five year was used to make assumptions for the projections. This means that these sets of projections are based on a "what-if the next ten years of enrollment progression and new kindergarteners look like the last 5 year"! Be aware that this set of projections does not take any trends into account. This might be fine for most districts, but not so much for others.

How to use this page

You have to select a school district. You have to do that from the drop down menu or through clicking on the 'Find' option next to it.
The second line in the light grey bar lets you choose the projection method.

The chart and tables

The chart shows a mix of historic total enrollment (K-12) and projected enrollment. Several projection methods have a stochastic nature and many possible outcomes were generated. In the chart and table underneath are the average total enrollment and the 5-th and 95-th percentile of the range of possible outcomes presented.
The bottom table is an historic overview of progression ratios. The lower and upper bound of the projections will be farther apart (more uncertainty in the projections) when there is a lot of variation in the past ratios.

Projection methods:

5yr_robust_stat: The median progression ratio and enrollment in Kindergarten over the last 5 year is used to project the base school enrollment into the future.
5yr_random_pick: This method simulates a possible outcome by randomly picking one set of progression ratios and Kindergarten enrollment out of the last five years of data. This is done many times.