Projection data: charts

	1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total 0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65plus 85plus

Projection data: table

	1990	2000	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040
Total	17,990,455	18,976,457	19,378,102	19,546,904	19,697,021	19,786,848	19,794,733	19,729,053	19,623,506
0-4	1,255,764	1,239,417	1,155,822	1,244,997	1,250,173	1,233,350	1,211,478	1,201,563	1,202,544
5-14	2,318,183	2,684,290	2,375,411	2,334,740	2,408,728	2,474,157	2,460,338	2,425,328	2,398,896
15-24	2,639,026	2,531,853	2,777,213	2,614,328	2,467,818	2,458,238	2,511,876	2,548,309	2,527,176
25-44	5,862,873	5,831,622	5,269,354	5,321,686	5,450,210	5,445,087	5,355,059	5,251,500	5,206,759
45-64	3,550,887	4,240,923	5,182,359	5,183,991	5,004,504	4,764,746	4,637,384	4,651,429	4,718,150
65plus	2,363,722	2,448,352	2,617,943	2,847,162	3,115,588	3,411,270	3,618,598	3,650,924	3,569,981
85plus	248,173	311,488	390,874	401,486	389,166	389,062	418,616	485,241	543,452
Males	8,625,673	9,146,748	9,377,147	9,465,239	9,538,920	9,579,436	9,579,193	9,546,069	9,497,729
Females	9,364,782	9,829,709	10,000,955	10,081,665	10,158,101	10,207,412	10,215,540	10,182,984	10,125,777
0-4	1,255,764	1,239,417	1,155,822	1,244,997	1,250,173	1,233,350	1,211,478	1,201,563	1,202,544
5-9	1,178,006	1,351,857	1,163,955	1,163,565	1,236,820	1,240,637	1,224,971	1,205,353	1,197,098
10-14	1,140,177	1,332,433	1,211,456	1,171,175	1,171,908	1,233,520	1,235,367	1,219,975	1,201,798
15-19	1,230,127	1,287,544	1,366,278	1,227,662	1,199,920	1,201,101	1,251,238	1,249,739	1,234,392
20-24	1,408,899	1,244,309	1,410,935	1,386,666	1,267,898	1,257,137	1,260,638	1,298,570	1,292,784
25-29	1,564,617	1,304,725	1,380,177	1,426,267	1,404,461	1,297,668	1,298,622	1,303,805	1,332,579
30-34	1,573,571	1,452,599	1,279,160	1,388,843	1,429,547	1,408,613	1,308,637	1,315,844	1,321,843
35-39	1,426,461	1,566,083	1,254,124	1,271,365	1,368,814	1,403,904	1,382,700	1,288,190	1,298,271
40-44	1,298,224	1,508,215	1,355,893	1,235,211	1,247,388	1,334,902	1,365,100	1,343,661	1,254,066
45-49	1,042,317	1,341,138	1,458,763	1,318,097	1,206,000	1,214,124	1,293,523	1,319,867	1,298,663
50-54	871,603	1,211,798	1,419,928	1,402,199	1,268,335	1,163,455	1,168,254	1,240,432	1,263,677
55-59	811,857	932,008	1,237,408	1,330,254	1,312,883	1,187,449	1,091,016	1,093,192	1,157,600
60-64	825,110	755,979	1,066,260	1,133,441	1,217,286	1,199,718	1,084,591	997,938	998,210
65-69	755,342	657,600	773,211	943,579	1,004,040	1,076,688	1,059,360	956,910	881,409
70-74	592,937	618,446	587,391	668,250	814,734	867,396	929,079	913,249	824,826
75-79	461,880	514,132	474,807	482,638	549,573	669,726	713,581	763,930	750,834
80-84	305,390	346,686	391,660	351,209	358,075	408,398	497,962	531,594	569,460
85+	248,173	311,488	390,874	401,486	389,166	389,062	418,616	485,241	543,452
Male, 0-4	642,748	634,081	590,879	637,309	639,961	631,349	620,149	615,078	615,577
Male, 5-9	603,086	691,025	594,362	593,197	631,451	633,555	625,684	615,755	611,614
Male, 10-14	582,620	682,849	619,243	597,346	597,009	629,280	630,480	622,822	613,676
Male, 15-19	626,761	661,617	699,548	628,050	612,708	612,822	639,264	638,898	631,312
Male, 20-24	705,729	623,029	712,002	701,100	640,572	633,894	635,240	655,180	652,659
Male, 25-29	774,559	640,315	680,203	708,247	698,286	644,691	644,129	646,355	661,349
Male, 30-34	775,543	715,306	629,759	686,820	710,549	700,783	650,895	653,837	656,717
Male, 35-39	698,556	770,307	613,775	626,850	677,816	697,661	687,702	640,674	645,325
Male, 40-44	625,529	738,969	663,333	603,542	613,753	659,566	676,310	666,239	621,839
Male, 45-49	496,475	649,533	709,523	640,758	586,038	593,907	635,453	649,878	639,961
Male, 50-54	413,813	577,392	687,779	676,945	612,195	561,563	567,459	605,175	617,845
Male, 55-59	382,319	436,363	591,847	638,849	628,785	568,797	522,649	526,951	560,567
Male, 60-64	379,510	349,824	500,359	533,020	574,911	565,311	511,284	470,503	473,534
Male, 65-69	331,502	296,363	352,255	431,908	460,589	496,042	487,064	440,295	405,628
Male, 70-74	244,199	264,899	258,616	293,586	359,817	383,967	413,095	405,357	366,492
Male, 75-79	174,121	204,157	200,049	201,927	229,568	281,377	300,590	323,352	317,416
Male, 80-84	101,650	123,657	150,993	136,985	138,857	158,203	194,209	207,962	224,067
Male, 85+	66,953	87,062	122,622	128,800	126,055	126,668	137,537	161,758	182,151
Female, 0-4	613,016	605,336	564,943	607,688	610,212	602,001	591,329	586,485	586,967
Female, 5-9	574,920	660,832	569,593	570,368	605,369	607,082	599,287	589,598	585,484
Female, 10-14	557,557	649,584	592,213	573,829	574,899	604,240	604,887	597,153	588,122
Female, 15-19	603,366	625,927	666,730	599,612	587,212	588,279	611,974	610,841	603,080
Female, 20-24	703,170	621,280	698,933	685,566	627,326	623,243	625,398	643,390	640,125
Female, 25-29	790,058	664,410	699,974	718,020	706,175	652,977	654,493	657,450	671,230
Female, 30-34	798,028	737,293	649,401	702,023	718,998	707,830	657,742	662,007	665,126
Female, 35-39	727,905	795,776	640,349	644,515	690,998	706,243	694,998	647,516	652,946
Female, 40-44	672,695	769,246	692,560	631,669	633,635	675,336	688,790	677,422	632,227
Female, 45-49	545,842	691,605	749,240	677,339	619,962	620,217	658,070	669,989	658,702
Female, 50-54	457,790	634,406	732,149	725,254	656,140	601,892	600,795	635,257	645,832
Female, 55-59	429,538	495,645	645,561	691,405	684,098	618,652	568,367	566,241	597,033
Female, 60-64	445,600	406,155	565,901	600,421	642,375	634,407	573,307	527,435	524,676
Female, 65-69	423,840	361,237	420,956	511,671	543,451	580,646	572,296	516,615	475,781
Female, 70-74	348,738	353,547	328,775	374,664	454,917	483,429	515,984	507,892	458,334
Female, 75-79	287,759	309,975	274,758	280,711	320,005	388,349	412,991	440,578	433,418
Female, 80-84	203,740	223,029	240,667	214,224	219,218	250,195	303,753	323,632	345,393
Female, 85+	181,220	224,426	268,252	272,686	263,111	262,394	281,079	323,483	361,301

	1990	2000	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
0-4	7.0%	6.5%	6.0%	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%	6.1%	6.1%	6.1%
5-14	12.9%	14.1%	12.3%	11.9%	12.2%	12.5%	12.4%	12.3%	12.2%
15-24	14.7%	13.3%	14.3%	13.4%	12.5%	12.4%	12.7%	12.9%	12.9%
25-44	32.6%	30.7%	27.2%	27.2%	27.7%	27.5%	27.1%	26.6%	26.5%
45-64	19.7%	22.3%	26.7%	26.5%	25.4%	24.1%	23.4%	23.6%	24.0%
65plus	13.1%	12.9%	13.5%	14.6%	15.8%	17.2%	18.3%	18.5%	18.2%
85plus	1.4%	1.6%	2.0%	2.1%	2.0%	2.0%	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%
Males	47.9%	48.2%	48.4%	48.4%	48.4%	48.4%	48.4%	48.4%	48.4%
Females	52.1%	51.8%	51.6%	51.6%	51.6%	51.6%	51.6%	51.6%	51.6%
0-4	7.0%	6.5%	6.0%	6.4%	6.4%	6.2%	6.1%	6.1%	6.1%
5-9	6.6%	7.1%	6.0%	5.9%	6.3%	6.3%	6.2%	6.1%	6.1%
10-14	6.3%	7.0%	6.3%	6.0%	5.9%	6.2%	6.3%	6.2%	6.1%
15-19	6.8%	6.8%	7.1%	6.3%	6.1%	6.1%	6.3%	6.3%	6.3%
20-24	7.8%	6.6%	7.3%	7.1%	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%	6.6%	6.6%
25-29	8.7%	6.9%	7.1%	7.3%	7.1%	6.6%	6.6%	6.6%	6.8%
30-34	8.8%	7.7%	6.6%	7.1%	7.3%	7.1%	6.6%	6.7%	6.7%
35-39	7.9%	8.3%	6.5%	6.5%	6.9%	7.1%	7.0%	6.5%	6.6%
40-44	7.2%	7.9%	7.0%	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	6.9%	6.8%	6.4%
45-49	5.8%	7.1%	7.5%	6.8%	6.1%	6.1%	6.5%	6.7%	6.6%
50-54	4.8%	6.4%	7.3%	7.2%	6.4%	5.9%	5.9%	6.3%	6.4%
55-59	4.5%	4.9%	6.4%	6.8%	6.7%	6.0%	5.5%	5.5%	5.9%
60-64	4.6%	4.0%	5.5%	5.8%	6.2%	6.1%	5.5%	5.1%	5.1%
65-69	4.2%	3.5%	4.0%	4.8%	5.1%	5.4%	5.4%	4.9%	4.5%
70-74	3.3%	3.3%	3.0%	3.4%	4.1%	4.4%	4.7%	4.6%	4.2%
75-79	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	2.8%	3.4%	3.6%	3.9%	3.8%
80-84	1.7%	1.8%	2.0%	1.8%	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%	2.7%	2.9%
85+	1.4%	1.6%	2.0%	2.1%	2.0%	2.0%	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%
Male, 0-4	3.6%	3.3%	3.1%	3.3%	3.3%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Male, 5-9	3.4%	3.6%	3.1%	3.0%	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%
Male, 10-14	3.2%	3.6%	3.2%	3.1%	3.0%	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%	3.1%
Male, 15-19	3.5%	3.5%	3.6%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%
Male, 20-24	3.9%	3.3%	3.7%	3.6%	3.3%	3.2%	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%
Male, 25-29	4.3%	3.4%	3.5%	3.6%	3.6%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Male, 30-34	4.3%	3.8%	3.3%	3.5%	3.6%	3.5%	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Male, 35-39	3.9%	4.1%	3.2%	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.3%	3.3%
Male, 40-44	3.5%	3.9%	3.4%	3.1%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%	3.2%
Male, 45-49	2.8%	3.4%	3.7%	3.3%	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%
Male, 50-54	2.3%	3.0%	3.6%	3.5%	3.1%	2.8%	2.9%	3.1%	3.2%
Male, 55-59	2.1%	2.3%	3.1%	3.3%	3.2%	2.9%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%
Male, 60-64	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%	2.9%	2.6%	2.4%	2.4%
Male, 65-69	1.8%	1.6%	1.8%	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%	2.5%	2.2%	2.1%
Male, 70-74	1.4%	1.4%	1.3%	1.5%	1.8%	1.9%	2.1%	2.1%	1.9%
Male, 75-79	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%
Male, 80-84	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%
Male, 85+	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%
Female, 0-4	3.4%	3.2%	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Female, 5-9	3.2%	3.5%	2.9%	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Female, 10-14	3.1%	3.4%	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%
Female, 15-19	3.4%	3.3%	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Female, 20-24	3.9%	3.3%	3.6%	3.5%	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%
Female, 25-29	4.4%	3.5%	3.6%	3.7%	3.6%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Female, 30-34	4.4%	3.9%	3.4%	3.6%	3.7%	3.6%	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%
Female, 35-39	4.1%	4.2%	3.3%	3.3%	3.5%	3.6%	3.5%	3.3%	3.3%
Female, 40-44	3.7%	4.1%	3.6%	3.2%	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%	3.4%	3.2%
Female, 45-49	3.0%	3.6%	3.9%	3.5%	3.2%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%
Female, 50-54	2.5%	3.3%	3.8%	3.7%	3.3%	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.3%
Female, 55-59	2.4%	2.6%	3.3%	3.5%	3.5%	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%
Female, 60-64	2.5%	2.1%	2.9%	3.1%	3.3%	3.2%	2.9%	2.7%	2.7%
Female, 65-69	2.4%	1.9%	2.2%	2.6%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%	2.6%	2.4%
Female, 70-74	1.9%	1.9%	1.7%	1.9%	2.3%	2.4%	2.6%	2.6%	2.3%
Female, 75-79	1.6%	1.6%	1.4%	1.4%	1.6%	2.0%	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%
Female, 80-84	1.1%	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.1%	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%	1.8%
Female, 85+	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.4%	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%	1.6%	1.8%

New York State Projection Data by County

In 2008 Cornell's Program on Applied Demographics redesigned its projection methods and produced population projections by county and by age and sex.

During 2011 the Census Bureau published the counts of the 2010 Decennial Census. These counts are being used as a launching point for the projections.

The results found on this web page were produced on September 8, 2011. At this moment many assumptions are still based on rates that were estimated using data from around 2000. When more and more recent data becomes available these assumptions and the projections will be updated. Some assumptions have already gone through an update to better reflect most recent trends.

The projections are in 5 year intervals, in 5 year age groups, and project to 2040. The projections are based upon rates of change estimated from historic data. This means that the projections reflect what would happen if the rates of population growth and decline stay as they were. The projections are not meant to be forecasts; forecasts are predictions of future conditions while these projections are meant to gain insight into what might happen if the future looks like the past.

A methodology description and an Excel sheet with the assumptions can be downloaded from the download section.

At the data section you can select a county of interest and look at the projected population. There you can choose to look at the numbers as a table, as a chart with the totals, or as the sex and age distribution in a given year.

Feel free to send us your comments by e-mail to PADinfo@cornell.edu

Downloads

Projection data

Download Excel workbook

This Excel workbook contains data for all Counties and the state by age and sex for each of the projected years.

Methodology description

Download PDF

This report describes the methodologies used to estimate the historic rates and how the rates are being used in the projections.

Assumptions

Download Excel workbook

The Excel workbook contains the assumed rates upon which the current set of projections are based. There are worksheets with estimates of the historic rates and there are two worksheets that allow for deviations from historic trends.