PAD ProjectionsNew York State Projection Data by County In 2008 Cornell's Program on Applied Demographics redesigned its projection methods and produced population projections by county and by age and sex. The main differences from the earlier methodology and numbers are a 2005 base population instead of 2000, and the way populations in Group Quarters are handled. Since 2008 the numbers were revised to accommodate new insights, such as new Census Bureau estimates. The results found on this web page were produced on April 2, 2009. The projections are in 5 year intervals, in 5 year age groups, and project to 2035. The projections are based upon rates of change estimated from historic data. This means that the projections reflect what would happen if the rates of population growth and decline stay as they were. The projections are not meant to be forecasts; forecasts are predictions of future conditions while these projections are meant to gain insight into what might happen if the future looks like the past. A methodology description and an Excel sheet with the assumptions can be downloaded from the download section. At the data section you can select a county of interest and look at the projected population. There you can choose to look at the numbers as a table, as a chart with the totals, or as the sex and age distribution in a given year. Feel free to send us your comments by e-mail to PADinfo@cornell.edu
Projection data This Excel workbook contains data for all Counties and the state by age and sex for each of the projected years. Methodology description This report describes the methodologies used to estimate the historic rates and how the rates are being used in the projections. Assumptions The Excel workbook contains the assumed rates upon which the current set of projections are based. There are worksheets with estimates of the historic rates and there are two worksheets that allow for deviations from historic trends.
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Program on Applied Demographics
Program on Applied Demographics
