A series of briefs on New York population dynamics from the Cornell Program in Applied Demographics (PAD) at the Cornell Population Center
TiDbit 24-01                                                                                                                                                                                                           Leslie Reynolds
The “New York State” of (Domestic) Migration
 
*Year represents the end of the estimate period (e.g. 2011 is the period of July 2010 to July 2011)
Data: Vintage 2020 and 2023 Annual Population Estimates
                 
                                                                                                                              
Summary
In a country such as the United States where life expectancy is relatively long, fertility rates have been on the decline, and age at first birth has been rising [TiDbit-23-01], migration is an increasingly vital component of population change. This brief focuses on movement within the United States, but a future issue will concentrate on international migration. New York State has experienced more people leaving than coming in (negative net migration) since July 2011 (Vintage 2020 Annual Population Estimates), but the COVID-19 Pandemic shifted current migration trends and blurred expectations for the future. Net domestic migration sharply declined from 2019 (-183,857) to 2022 (-299,557), while net international migration plateaued around 27,720 and rose almost to pre-2016 levels in 2022. 
In the U.S., people who moved to another state most often said it was due to a new job or a job transfer, whereas people moving within the same state most often cited wanting new or better housing. Florida was the top destination state for movers out of NYS (about 90,157 people), while New Jersey was the top origin for in-movers (39,725 people) and a top destination for out-movers (75,155 people) (2022 1-year ACS). The characteristics of movers between New York State and other states changed over the last decade, especially for New York City.  Between 2012 and 2022, the median household income of movers between NYS and other states rose significantly, especially for movers into (+ $35K) and out of NYC (+ $39K), and non-movers within NYC (+ $22.5K). Concurrently, average household size decreased for all groups of movers, both within and outside NYC, especially among households moving into NYC (-0.6) and moving out of NYC (-0.3).
Technical Details
Group quarters were included in estimates of population and not included in statistics on households. Estimates of state and county net migration were provided by the Vintage 2020 and 2022 Annual Population Estimates. Net migration refers to the number of people moving in minus the number moving out and is composed by adding the balance of domestic and international migration together. Net domestic migration rates quantify net domestic migration during a certain period for an area divided by the area’s population at the midpoint of that period. Migration in- and out-flows by characteristics were derived from the 2022 1-year American Community Survey (ACS), retrieved using IPUMS. For this analysis, married or unmarried partners residing together with the biological children of one or both partners were considered couples with children. Persons Per Household (PPH), or average household size, is the household population divided by the number of households and was calculated using the 2012 and 2022 1-year ACS. Median income from the ACS was adjusted using the Census Bureau adjustment factor which adjusts reported dollar amounts to what they would have been if earned entirely during the calendar year.
References
Flood, Sarah, Miriam King, Renae Rodgers, Steven Ruggles, J. Robert Warren, Daniel Backman, Annie Chen, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, Megan Schouweiler, and Michael Westberry. IPUMS CPS: Version 11.0 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS), Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2023. https://doi.org/10.18128/D030.V11.0
Ruggles, Steven, Sarah Flood, Matthew Sobek, Daniel Backman, Annie Chen, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, Renae Rogers, and Megan Schouweiler. IPUMS USA: Version 14.0 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS). Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2023. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V14.0
U.S. Census Bureau. Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2022 Annual Population Estimates, County Components of Change. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.2022.List_58029271.html#list-tab-List_58029271
U.S. Census Bureau. 2022 North American Industry Classification System codes (NAICS) https://www.census.gov/naics/?input=56&chart=2022
 



 
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