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A series of briefs on New York population dynamics from the Cornell Program in Applied Demographics (PAD) at the Cornell Population Center.
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(TIDbit 23-01) by Leslie Reynolds
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Fertility in New York State
In Demography, fertility is the addition of new population by childbirth. Births are a vital component of population change, and the birth rate (number of births per 1,000 population) is an essential indicator of growth. Total fertility rates (TFR) more directly quantify the potential for change in a population by indicating whether fertility is at, above, or below “replacement” level. For most developed countries, if women on average give birth to 2.1 children who all survive to minimum reproductive age (considered to be 15), a given woman and her partner will be replaced within the population upon their deaths. Fertility rates also reflect broader social or economic changes, and significant events (especially those that impact mortality) such as the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Fertility rates have been declining globally over the past decade, paving way for an aging population- and New York is no exception (see TiDbit 22-01). From 2003 to 2009 the TFR in New York State hovered around 1.85 (below replacement level). Over the next decade it fell consistently, reaching 1.55 in 2021. Even with a reduction in overall fertility, hundreds of thousands of babies are still born in the state each year (210,742 in 2021). Within the state, counties have very different fertility patterns. While on average women have 3.03 births during their reproductive years in Rockland County, in Tompkins County this number is only 1.02. No matter what the rate of fertility is, births and babies will always be vital to populations.
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New York State Family Facts:
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Fertility varies geographically, often due to population age structures or other characteristics.
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The parental arrangements of households with babies are different from those in households with children aged 2 and older.
Parental Structure of Households with...
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Technical Details
Total fertility and age-specific fertility rates were calculated from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) Natality files. Age Specific Fertility Rates for 2001 and geographic variation in fertility and birth rates utilized the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics Tables. The universe for fertility rates in this brief is women of typical reproductive ages, defined as those aged 15-44. Total Fertility rates were calculated based on the fertility rates of six 5-year age groups:
Estimates of households with children by parental structure were derived from the 1-year American Community Survey (ACS). Family households are defined in the ACS as having a household head and one or more persons who are related to the household head by birth, marriage, or adoption. Family households are headed either by a married couple or a man/woman without a spouse present. Households with an unmarried partner present are classified as family households only if there are relatives of the household head by marriage, adoption, or birth present. For our analyses, two-parent households were defined as family households with children under 18 in which two parents (biological, adopted, or step) of at least one child were present in the household. One-parent households were those where only one parent (biological, adopted, or step) of any child could be identified in the household. These households were then classified by couple type: opposite sex married, same sex married, opposite sex cohabiting, or same sex cohabiting. Households with children where only one parent was present were classified as single mother or single father households. Classification of parental arrangements depended only on the presence of parents and children in the household, regardless of the remaining family structure (for example, a household with a single mother and her baby living with the mother's parents would be considered a single mother household).
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References:
Ruggles, Steven, Sarah Flood, Matthew Sobek, Danika Brockman, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, and Megan Schouweiler. IPUMS USA: Version 13.0. American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2023. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V13.0
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 2021 1-year estimates. Table S1101: Households and Families. Retrieved from S1101: HOUSEHOLDS AND FAMILIES - Census Bureau Table
United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Division of Vital Statistics, Natality Public Use data 2016-2020, on CDC WONDER Online Database, October 2021. Retrieved from: http://wonder.cdc.gov/natality-expanded-current.html
2000-2021 Vital Statistics of New York State Tables. NYS DOH Vital Statistics. Retrieved from Vital Statistics of New York State (ny.gov).
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