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(TIDbit 22-01) by Leslie Reynolds
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Aging in New York State
In 2019, adults aged 65 and older made up almost 17% of the United States population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020), and with the first of the baby boom cohort (those born from 1946-1964) reaching age 65 in 2010, the U.S. is expected to continue to age. Projections from the Census Bureau estimate that by 2040 approximately 22% of the population will be over 65, outnumbering children under 18 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2018). Compared to other states, the size of New York’s older adult population is rather typical (17%; rank 26). However, with children making up only 20% of the state population, the Census Bureau’s projections may be closer than they appear. Since 2010, the age at which adults stop working has risen. Additionally, despite access to Social Security and other programs older adults still have necessary expenditures such as rental or mortgage payments, out of pocket medical expenses, and transportation costs. With all income, benefits, and expenditures considered (using the Supplemental Poverty Measure), about 14% of all adults aged 65+ and 19% of adults aged 80 and older in New York were living below poverty level in 2018. As the older adult population in the U.S. continues to grow, we will face issues unique to an aging society.
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New York State Population Structure, 2019
PAD calculations used the vintage 2019 Annual Population Estimates
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Population aging varies both across and within states. While adults over 65 made up 33% of the population in Hamilton County, this share was only 14% in the Bronx. Differences in the number of working age adults in a county accompany this variation, such that the ratio of older-to-working age adults (elderly dependency) is lowest in the Bronx (20.1) and highest in Hamilton County (55.4).
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Elderly Dependency Ratios in New York State, by County 2019
PAD calculations used the vintage 2019 Annual Population Estimates
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Due to social and economic shifts over the past few decades, such as the rise in debt at retirement (Li, 2019), adults are working to older ages.
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The Supplemental Poverty rate of older adult (65+) households varies by household structure:
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Technical Details:
The Census Bureau Vintage 2019 Population Estimates were used to calculate national age by sex distributions and median age by county. Calculations of percent change in the 65 and older population utilized the 2009 and 2019 single year American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata (PUMS). Supplemental poverty and labor participation rates by age group were estimated using the 2010 and 2019 single year ACS PUMS.
Labor participants include those employed, or unemployed and looking for a job. The civilian population includes those who are not institutionalized or serving in the armed forces. Those residing in “other” non-institutional group quarters such as religious institutions or work sites were included in this population. The ACS supplemental poverty measure (SPM) was used to calculate supplemental poverty rates which include expenditures and benefits not considered by the official poverty measure (e.g. economic impact/stimulus payments, social security, paid and received child support, medical expenses etc.). The SPM also uses an adjusted measure of family structure that considers cohabiting partners and foster children as being in the same family as the householder and places no restrictions in terms of age or marital status on adult family relationships to the householder.
Coding steps for the calculation of the supplemental p  overty rate
were weighted to the population using the ACS household weights. Children under 15 unrelated to the householder (excluding foster children) were not included in the calculation of supplemental poverty rates. The definitions of family structure used for our analysis are listed to the right. More detail on the use and development of this measure can be found here (Fox & Burns, 2021).
Author Bio:
Leslie Reynolds is the Research Support Specialist for the Program on Applied Demographics at Cornell University. She specializes in population trends, statistical and demographic methods, and social inequality. She holds a Master's degree in Applied Demography from Bowling Green State University.
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References
Brooks, Rodney. “70 is the new 60- and that’s not good news”. (2016). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2016/06/06/70-is-the-new-60-and-thats-not-good-news/.
Burns, Sarah & Liana Fox The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2020. (2021). https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-275.html.
Fox, Liana E. The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2018. (2019). https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-268.pdf
Li, Zhe. (2019). Household Debt Among Older Americans, 1989-2016. Congressional Research Service (CRS). https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R45911.pdf
Ruggles, Steven, Sarah Flood, Ronald Goeken, Megan Schouweiler and Matthew Sobek. IPUMS USA: Version 12.0 [2009, 2010, 2019 American Community Survey]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2022. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V12.0
U.S. Census Bureau. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for New York: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (SC-EST2019-AGESEX) (2022). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division: Washington D.C.
U.S. Census Bureau. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for New York: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (SC-EST2019-AGESEX) (2020). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division: Washington D.C.
U.S. Census Bureau. Projected Age Groups and Sex Composition of the Population: Main Projections Series for the United States, 2017-2060. (2018) U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division: Washington, DC.
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